Threat Levels: The System to Assess the Threat from International Terrorism
Current UK Threat Level
The current threat level is assessed as Severe (as of 4th
July 2007).
What are Threat Levels
Threat levels are designed to give a broad indication of the likelihood of
a terrorist attack. They are based on the assessment of a range of factors
including current intelligence, recent events and what is known about
terrorist intentions and capabilities. This information may well be
incomplete and decisions about the appropriate security response are made
with this in mind.
Together with the detailed assessments behind them, this analysis informs
security practitioners in key sectors and the police of the potential
threat of terrorist attack. Threat assessments are also produced as
necessary for individuals and events. There are five threat levels which
inform decisions about the levels of security needed to protect our
Critical National Infrastructure (CNI).
-
Low - an attack is unlikely
-
Moderate - an attack is possible, but not likely
-
Substantial - an attack is a strong possibility
-
Severe - an attack is highly likely
-
Critical - an attack is expected imminently
How do we decide Threat Levels
In reaching a judgement on the appropriate threat level in any given
circumstance several factors need to be taken into account, these include:
Available intelligence: It is rare that specific threat
information is available and can be relied upon. More often, judgements
about the threat will be based on a wide range of information, which is
often fragmentary, including the level and nature of current terrorist
activity, comparison with events in other countries and previous attacks.
Intelligence is only ever likely to reveal part of the picture.
Terrorist capability: An examination of what is known
about the capabilities of the terrorists in question and the method they
may use based on previous attacks or from intelligence. This would also
analyse the potential scale of the attack.
Terrorist intentions: Using intelligence and publicly
available informaton to examine the overall aims of the terrorists and the
ways they may achieve them including what sort of targets they would
consider attacking.
Timescale: The threat level expresses the likelihood of an
attack in the near term. We know from past incidents that some attacks take
years to plan, while others are put together more quickly. In the absence
of specific intelligence, a judgement will need to be made about how close
an attack might be to fruition. Threat levels do not have any set expiry
date, but are regularly subject to review in order to ensure that they
remain current.
Who decides Threat Levels
The Joint Terrorism
Analysis Centre (JTAC) was created in 2003 as the UK's centre for
the analysis and assessment of international terrorism. JTAC is responsible
for setting international terrorism threat levels and Ministers are
informed of its decision. It also issues warnings of threats and other
terrorist-related subjects for customers from a wide range of government
departments and agencies, as well as producing more in-depth reports on
trends, terrorist networks and capabilities.
The Security Service is responsible for assessing the level and nature of
the threat arising from domestic terrorism, principally the Irish related
terrorist threat.
Where can I find out what the current National Threat Level is
National threat levels are continually monitored and are altered as
required. We cannot anticipate how frequently they may be amended as this
is dependent on available intelligence at any one time.
Information about the national threat level will be available on this
website as well as the Security
Service [External website] and
Home Office [External website] websites.
Information on the risks of terrorism for British nationals overseas can be
found on the
Foreign and Commonwealth Office website[External
website].
What are Response Levels and how do they relate to Threat Levels
Response levels provide a broad indication of the protective security
measures that should be applied at any particular moment. They are set by
security practitioners in Government and in some Critical National
Infrastructure sectors. They are informed by the threat level but also take
into account specific assessments of vulnerability and risk.
Response levels tend to relate to sites, whereas threat levels usually
relate to broad areas of activity.
Within response levels, there is a variety of security measures that can be
applied as appropriate - the response level will not produce the same
measures at every location. Many of the measures will not be obvious or
visible to the public.
There are three levels of response which broadly equate to threat levels as
shown below:
Response Levels and how they relate to Threat Levels
|
Response Level
|
Description
|
Related Threat Levels
|
|
Normal
|
Routine protective security measures appropriate to the business
concerned
|
Low and Moderate
|
|
Heightened
|
Additional and sustainable protective security measures reflecting
the broad nature of the threat combined with specific business and
geographical vulnerabilities and judgements on acceptable risk
|
Substantial and Severe
|
|
Exceptional
|
Maximum protective security measures to meet specific threats and to
minimise vulnerability and risk
|
Critical
|
The security measures taken to protect people and Critical National
Infrastructure will not be announced publicly, to avoid informing
terrorists about what we know and what we are doing about it. Because
response levels are the result of detailed assessments of risk to specific
elements of the Critical National Infrastructure, changes in the national
threat level will not necessarily produce changes to the sector-specific
response levels.
How the Public should respond to different National Threat Levels
Public vigilance is always important regardless of the current national
threat level, but it is especially important given the current national
threat. Sharing national threat levels with the general public keeps
everyone informed and explains the context for the various security
measures (for example airport security or bag searches) we may encounter as
we go about our daily lives.
If you have information about possible terrorist activity, call the
Anti-Terrorist Hotline: 0800 789 321.
The Anti-Terrorist Hotline is for tip offs and confidential information.
For warnings about possible bombs or other immediate threats please call
999.
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